| |
W1GMF > SKYWRN 12.05.09 23:17l 55 Lines 2338 Bytes #999 (0) @ NEWENG
BID : 59817_W1GMF
Read: GUEST
Subj: Severe Weather Coordination Message #2
Path: ON0AR<VE2RXY<KD4GCA<N1NTP<KE1AB<W1GMF
Sent: 090512/1817Z @:W1GMF.#EMA.MA.USA.NOAM #:59817 [ABINGTON, MA] FBB7.00e
From: W1GMF@W1GMF.#EMA.MA.USA.NOAM
To : SKYWRN@NEWENG
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Remain Possible This
Afternoon and Evening with Hail being the primary threat though strong winds
cannot be ruled out. Threat appears a bit less than previously forecasted
Monday Evening..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton Remains Possible for This
Afternoon and Evening..
Latest model runs have reduced the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms
today but the threat should continue to be monitored. Key issue with today's
threat is the amount of available moisture. Models are currently forecasting
very low levels of moisture which may preclude significant development of
thunderstorms with large hail. In addition, winds aloft and shear remain
light which was forecasted in prior model runs. That said, one model run
forecasts more moisture convergence and lift over Eastern Connecticut, Rhode
Island and Central Massachusetts and this coupled with the cold air pool
aloft would lead to a more robust severe threat for large hail. Other
computer models do not support this scenario. Current thinking is there will
be isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms capable of small hail with
less of a threat of a thunderstorm producing large hail but there still is a
possibility this will occur. Strong winds cannot be ruled out in any
thunderstorm but the biggest threat for today will be hail.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remains possible this afternoon
and evening. This will be the last complete coordination message on this
threat. A short update will be issued if Ops at NWS Taunton is initiated and
time allows to send out the message. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous
Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/latest.acus01.KWNS.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
