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W7WXV > WX 28.12.22 11:05l 72 Lines 3148 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Avalanche Fcst - Mt. Hood - Oregon
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Sent: 221227/1017Z 3887@W7WXV.#COR.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.23
Backcountry Avalanche Forecast
Mt Hood
Issued
Monday, December 26, 2022 - 6:30PM
Expires
Tuesday, December 27, 2022 - 6:00PM
THE BOTTOM LINE
Changing weather conditions will bring changing avalanche conditions. You may
be able to trigger wet avalanches on steep slopes at the start of the day,
however, you may want to start thinking about wind slabs forming at higher
elevations as rain transitions over to snow. Strong winds and overlapping
avalanche problems will complicate your day, so consider keeping your terrain
choices simple, and avoid travel in areas where avalanches can start, run or
stop.
Avalanche Danger
Tuesday, December 27, 2022
Above Treeline 3 - Considerable
Near Treeline 3 - Considerable
Below Treeline 3 - Considerable
Avalanche Problem #1
Monday evening into Tuesday may bring up to another 1.5-2 inches of water (rain)
to the Mt. Hood area. This rain will continue to destabilize our snowpack and
maintain the wet snow avalanche hazard. We likely saw a natural avalanche cycle
4 days ago when rain was initially introduced to a dry snowpack, however, any
steep slopes should still be considered suspect with this amount of rain on
snow. Continue to avoid travel in areas where avalanches can start, run, or
come to a stop. For example, traveling in the bottom of a canyon may not be the
best spot to be, since larger avalanches from the upper mountain can reach these
areas.
You should also watch out for other wet avalanche problem types, such as wet
loose avalanches in steep terrain. These slides are often less destructive, but
can still create trouble in the wrong terrain.
Avalanche Problem #2
There is some uncertainty about how much new snow will start accumulating as
snow levels drop on Tuesday. Once snow starts falling it will be joined by very
strong SW winds. These winds will redistribute this new snow and create shallow
wind slabs on the lee sides of ridges and in the alpine. If you start seeing
new snow accumulating- identify where the wind is blowing the new snow-and avoid
similar slopes greater than 35 degrees. If you see blowing snow, cornices
developing, or observe cracking in the new snow- assume wind slabs are forming
close by.
Forecast Discussion
Active weather will continue on Tuesday with strong to extreme southwest winds
and unfortunately more precipitation in-form of rain. That said, snow levels
are forecasted to slowly drop throughout the day, so this should help the rain
transition over to snow for most trailhead locations. The question will be, how
much new snow???
This complicated weather forecast makes for a complicated avalanche forecast.
Tuesday will certainly bring a wet snow avalanche hazard since we already have a
wet snowpack and more rain in the forecast, however, you may want to consider
talking about dry snow avalanches as new snow piles up. As the weather changes,
so should your mindset. If you do venture out into the winds on Tuesday, it
will be a good day to be on your game and watch for changing conditions, and
adjust your tour plans accordingly as the weather changes.
NNNN
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